Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says three conditions could pave the way for Bitcoin (BTC) to reach the $80,000 level by the end of the year.
In a new note to investors, Hogan referenced a prediction made by Bitwise at the end of 2023, predicting that BTC will trade above the $80,000 level in 2024.
With the fourth quarter underway, the investor now says three conditions are necessary for Bitcoin to reach its target price.
Hogan's first condition is an election that brings “an outcome other than an overwhelming victory for the Democratic Party.'' While a Republican victory would bode well for cryptocurrencies, the CIO says things are more nuanced on the Democratic side.
“Bitcoin doesn’t need politicians to thrive. Just getting them out of the way is enough. And unless Democrats sweep both chambers of Congress and the White House, they will be more neutral toward the industry.” approach, so they probably will.”
Hogan said the second condition for Bitcoin's rise in the fourth quarter is two more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Hogan said the market was “hungry for more rate cuts” after the Fed cut in September and could be disappointed without one.
“Markets are looking for more. We now expect the US Federal Reserve to implement an additional 50 basis points of easing by the end of the year, and China to implement additional fiscal stimulus.
If we can achieve both, I think we can expect a recovery in the fourth quarter. Otherwise, I think disappointment could weigh on the market. ”
Hogan's final condition for a fourth-quarter meltup is that there are “no major negative surprises” that could catch the market off guard, such as a major hack, lawsuit, or locked coins unexpectedly appearing on the market. “That's all.”
“Unfortunately, the history of cryptocurrencies has been filled with countless surprises. Over the past few quarters, previously locked-up Bitcoin has been released from failed exchange Mt. Gox and government coffers. That has helped us stay within our range.
If we can get through the end of the year without a similar shock, we can expect new all-time highs and beyond. ”
Hogan also noted that the broader crypto market rally driving altcoins could spill over to Bitcoin and “further help close deals.”
At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $61,457.
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