Ethereum price showed a modest 0.3% decline during US trading on Wednesday and is currently trading at $2,432. This neutral candlestick formation projects an indecisive market sentiment with no clear buyer or seller advantage. While ETH's price stability trend continues, these five reasons could see Ether heading for a more directional trend.
Ethereum’s MVRV ratio suggests possibility of long-term recovery
According to Santiment data, the 365-day market value to realized value (MVRV) has stabilized around -13.7%. This ratio provides valuable insight into the profitability of Ethereum holders, i.e. long-term holders, over the past year.
Historically, large negative values have coincided with major market bottoms, as observed in June 2022 and October 2023. Therefore, Ethereum price may be poised for a major recovery trend in the medium to long term.
Additionally, on-chain data shows that the 30-day MVRV ratio, a metric that tracks short-term holders' profitability relative to market price over the past 30 days, has recently recovered.
After hitting a low of -21% in August, the MRVR ratio has risen significantly to -1.35%, suggesting that short-term holders are starting to recover, creating new buying interest in the market. May be irritating.
Analyst warns Ethereum will fall to $2,350
Since last week, ETH price has shown a notable rebound from $2,300 to $2,460, accounting for a 6% increase. However, as shown in Rektproof's chart analysis, overhead supply rejected the price sharply, sending it below the weekly opening price of $2,460.
If BTC price shows a lack of bullish momentum, Ethereum price could plummet to $2350 and retest the accumulation zone on the hourly chart. This support could restore bullish momentum and lead to a sustained reversal.
Decreasing active addresses and increasing ETH supply suggest a bearish outlook
Since the beginning of October, 24-hour active addresses within the ETH network have decreased from 512,800 to $434,200, a decrease of 15%. This decline in active addresses suggests that fewer participants are joining the Ethereum network each day. Such a decline could indicate waning interest and support a bearish outlook for Ether in the short term.
Additionally, ETH supply has been steadily increasing since July 2024, which coincides with an extended price correction below $3000. The increasing trend in this indicator is that investors are moving their assets into foreign exchange, increasing the probability of selling.
Furthermore, whale transactions (involving more than 100,000 ETH) have remained at consistently low levels, remaining below 1,000 since mid-August. The slowdown in activity of large holders during the recent price rebound suggests that this recovery did not attract much attention from these major market participants.
Ethereum Foundation wallet moves 2,500 ETH to Bitstamp
In a recent on-chain transaction, a wallet linked to the Ethereum Foundation transferred 1,200 ETH (worth approximately $3.03 million) to the Bitstamp exchange. According to Lookonchain, the wallet received 51,251 ETH from the Ethereum Foundation on November 17, 2015, with a value of $51,200 at the time and $124.5 million at current prices.
These large transactions, especially those from wallets linked to foundations, often create uncertainty in the market or cause temporary volatility in the market.
Wallets related to #Ethereum Foundation Deposit 1,250 $ETH(from $3.03 million) #bitstamp 20 minutes ago.
On November 17, 2015, the wallet received 51,251. $ETH($51.2 million then, $124.5 million now) #Ethereum Foundation.https://t.co/RV8HZrxgKH pic.twitter.com/uHQJH2Itp7
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) October 8, 2024
Symmetrical triangular pattern suggests potential movement
In the past two months of consolidation, the Ethereum price prediction daily chart shows a symmetrical triangular formation. Theoretically, the chart pattern causes a brief consolidation within two converging trendlines before the direction increases.
If the expected decline in ETH price falls below the lower support trend line, accelerating selling pressure could push it down from $2200 to $2000.
Conversely, note that a breakout of the triangle pattern around $2,600 could replenish bullish momentum for a rally above psychological resistance above $3,000.
Frequently asked questions (FAQ)
Ethereum’s 365-day MVRV ratio suggests a possible recovery for long-term holders, but analysts warn of a possible fall to $2,350. Meanwhile, a decline in active addresses and whale inactivity suggests a bearish trend
Analysts have warned that Ethereum could fall to $2,350 if BTC price loses its bullish momentum.
Decreasing active Ethereum addresses and increasing ETH supply from July 2024 onwards indicates a bearish outlook
Sahil Mahadik
Sahil is a dedicated full-time trader with over 3 years of experience in financial markets. He has a strong grasp of technical analysis and keeps a close eye on daily price movements of top assets and indices. Drawn by his fascination with financial products, Sahil enthusiastically embraced the emerging field of cryptocurrencies, where his passion for trading continues to explore opportunities.
Disclaimer: The content presented may contain the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market conditions. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or publication assumes no responsibility for your personal financial loss.
✓ Share: