A widely followed cryptocurrency analyst says he has pinpointed when Bitcoin (BTC) will hit a cycle high if history repeats itself.
In a new strategy session, cryptocurrency trader Rekt Capital told his 481,200 followers on social media platform X that the top crypto assets by market cap tend to peak 518 to 546 days after the halving, which occurs every four years in April.
“In the 2015-2017 cycle, Bitcoin peaked 518 days after the halving. In the 2019-2021 cycle, Bitcoin peaked 546 days after the halving.”
If history repeats itself and the next bull market peak occurs 518-546 days after the halving, Bitcoin could peak during this cycle in mid-September or mid-October 2025.”
However, Rekt Capital noted that the recent crypto market crash has significantly slowed the crypto king's acceleration rate.
“Earlier this year, Bitcoin was accelerating for 260 days in this cycle. However, now, over the last three months of consolidation, this acceleration rate has slowed significantly and is now around 150 days.
The longer Bitcoin remains stable after the halving, the more favorable it will be for resynchronizing the current cycle with the traditional halving cycle.”
The trader further argues that BTC has likely bottomed out by comparing all of BTC’s pullbacks since February 2023.
“Here is a list of Bitcoin’s declines dating back to the bottom of the 2022 bear market:
- -23% (February 2023).
- -21% (April/May 2023).
- -22% (July/September 2023).
- -21% (January 2024).
- -23.6% (April/May 2024).
- -21% So Far (June 2024) The average retracement for this cycle is -22%.
So this pullback is roughly an average correction of -22%.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $56,521, down 2.6% in the past 24 hours.
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