Monero, an altcoin with a long and storied history, is currently on an upward trend like never before. After closing at higher prices for 12 consecutive days, a new record for a privacy-focused altcoin, Monero is poised to make history again by closing at higher prices for 13 consecutive days. What happened after Monero's previous winning streak? Let's take a closer look at the price history to find out the answer.
Monero’s winning streak makes history
Monero's current 12-game winning streak breaks the previous record of 10 consecutive wins recorded in 2021. While the price increase is obviously impressive, due to its unprecedented nature, understanding Monero's future requires looking at previous shorter winning streaks. In other words, we use previous short historical winning streaks to generate enough occurrences to make more statistically meaningful conclusions.
Monero 2023 Winning Streak | XMRUSD on TradingView.com
Monero 2021 Winning Streak | XMRUSD on TradingView.com
The number of occurrences varies based on holding period, so let's start by listing the number of six consecutive high closes next to several hypothetical holding periods ranging from 7 days to 365 days. Holding period is defined as the length of time you hold an asset before selling it. For example, if you buy Monero after a trigger event (i.e., six consecutive high closes) and sell it 30 days later, your holding period would be 30 days.
Number of six consecutive high closing prices by holding period for Monero (May 2014 to present)
- 12 occurrences with a seven-day hold period
- 12 occurrences with a 15-day hold period
- 12 occurrences with a 30-day hold period
- 11 occurrences with a 60-day hold period
- 11 occurrences with a 90-day hold period
- 7 occurrences with a 180 day hold period
- 5 occurrences with a retention period of 356 days
Although the number of occurrences of shorter winning streaks is limited, Monero’s past six winning streaks have seen higher closing prices, so we have enough data to investigate and let’s move on with our analysis.
Monero’s past winning streak suggests it will continue to be strong in the future
Hypothetical average trading results for Monero (XMR) show a consistent positive advantage across all holding periods, from 7 days to 1 year. Note that even though the historical average trading results for each holding period examined were positive, losses also occurred during each holding period.
Monero holding time results for 6 consecutive high closes | Source: Tableau
Over roughly three-month holding periods, past winning streaks have averaged much larger gains, with an average trade of +65.1% over a 90-day hold, +121.7% over a 180-day hold, and an astounding +373.8% over a 365-day hold.
Admittedly, we have not seen consecutive high closes comparable to the current 12-month and almost 13-month stretch, but a look at Monero’s long price history suggests that more bullish developments are in the cards, especially over the next three-plus months.
