In its latest World Economic Outlook, Fitch Ratings has revised up its forecast for global economic growth through 2024.
According to Fitch, the outlook is improving due to growing confidence in Europe's economic recovery prospects, a recovery in China's export potential and gaining momentum in domestic demand in emerging markets excluding China.
Fitch raised its 2024 global growth forecast to 2.6% from 2.4% in its March review, while it raised its forecast for the euro zone to 0.8%, up 0.2 percentage points, and for China to 4.8% from 4.5%. The firm left its U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year unchanged at 2.1%.
At the same time, the agency expects global economic growth to slow to 2.4% in 2025, with U.S. growth slowing to 1.5% and eurozone growth accelerating to 1.5%. Analysts also expect China's economic growth to slow to 4.5% next year due to slowing exports and government spending.
“The outlook for Europe's recovery looks more confident as the terms of trade and energy shocks subside, energy-intensive industries in Germany start to recover and real wages recover. Rising real incomes should boost spending among households with stronger financial space, while the negative impact of the ECB's previous monetary tightening should diminish,” Fitch said.
As GMK Centre reported earlier, the World Bank has revised up its forecast for global economic growth in 2024 to 2.6% from the 2.4% forecast in January. Growth will accelerate to 2.7% year-on-year in 2025-2026, significantly lower than the average level of 3.1% recorded in the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic.
