All eyes are now on Wednesday, June 12, when the US central bank decides on interest rate policy.
However, the strong May jobs report means the Fed is likely to keep interest rates on hold this week.
Policy makers are almost certain to keep interest rates unchanged in the 5.25% to 5.5% range for a seventh consecutive session.
They may also reduce the number of rate cuts planned this year as policymakers analyze a range of economic data.
Economic Calendar June 10-14
June 12 will be a busy day with the release of the Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) report. This data is a key indicator of inflation in the economy and has a major impact on the Fed's monetary policy decisions, including interest rate adjustments.
A rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicates rising inflation and would typically pressure the Fed to raise or keep interest rates unchanged. With the year-over-year CPI expected to remain stable at 3.4%, the central bank is likely to leave interest rates unchanged this week.
This year, there has been a strong correlation between Bitcoin price and CPI data. CryptoPotato May. A higher than expected CPI is bearish for digital assets, while a lower than expected CPI is bullish.
Key events this week:
1. OPEC Monthly Report – Tuesday
2. May CPI Inflation Data – Wednesday
3. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision – Wednesday
4. Federal Reserve Press Conference – Wednesday
May Producer Price Index (PPI) Inflation Data – Thursday
6. MI Consumer Confidence Data – Friday
This week is Fed week…
— Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 9, 2024
Thursday, June 13, will see the release of the Core PPI (Producer Price Index) report, which measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by the nation's producers of goods and services and is a valuable complementary inflation measure used by FOMC policymakers.
“The Fed is waiting for a series of data that will give it more confidence that inflation is on a sustained path toward its 2 percent objective,” said Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
Analysts expect the first rate cut to come at the central bank's September policy meeting, its last before the Nov. 5 presidential election.
“that [the Fed] “We should expect two rate cuts this year and a cut cycle starting in September,” Bank of America economists wrote in a note to investors on Friday.
Impact on the cryptocurrency market
With interest rates almost certain to remain unchanged, the Fed's interest rate decision is likely already priced into the cryptocurrency market.
There may be some volatility midweek, but the sideways momentum is likely to continue, but altcoins may take a hit as Bitcoin dominance remains strong, so for now the premise of alt season holds.
Crypto trader “Emperor” shared his thoughts on the state of the market with his 390,000 followers on X on June 9.
Cryptocurrency market check.
Is the market in a state of turmoil right now? Yes.
On the one hand, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates and stimulate the market.
Meanwhile, there are celebrity scams on the market trying to make it to the top.
My thinking is simple.
Dropping into the 67-68K region…— Emperor 👑 (@EmperorBTC) June 9, 2024
Free $600 on Binance (CryptoPotato exclusive): Use this link to register a new account and receive an exclusive welcome offer of $600 on Binance. (Full details).
BYDFi Exchange Exclusive Offer for 2024: Up to $2,888 in welcome rewards, sign up using this link and open a 100 USDT-M position for free!