The question on everyone's mind at Consensus 2024 seems to be how to describe current market sentiment: is it a bull market, a bear market, on the brink of a new bull market, or on the brink of another collapse?
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Since the launch of bitcoin exchange-traded funds earlier this year, bitcoin has reclaimed and even surpassed the all-time highs it hit amid the hype of the bull market in 2021. But for weeks and weeks on end, the largest cryptocurrency seems to be trading sideways at best.
Overall, there have been a lot of positive developments for crypto in recent months. The European Union is beginning to gain momentum in its domestic cryptocurrency market after passing MiCA last year, and other global hubs such as Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates and the Caribbean are also moving forward with meaningful legislation.
And perhaps more importantly, regulatory gridlock in the U.S. finally appears to be starting to ease. The House of Representatives passed the 21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act (FIT21) last week, the most advanced crypto-specific legislation to date, while the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission reversed course on Ethereum ETFs.
Conditions for a breakout seem ripe for the taking, but for now it's unclear exactly what the future holds for the cryptocurrency.
“I’d say I’m cautiously optimistic,” Adam Roberts of MPC Wallet for Institutions told CoinDesk in an interview at Showroom. “The approval of an ETH ETF is a sign of change, but it’s not enough to jumpstart things again.”
“If you ask me in two days I'll probably give you a better answer,” Roberts added. “Considering how quickly the coffee went out, that's a good indicator.”
That's a sentiment echoed by Roberts' colleague Steve Horvat, who joked about using Consensus 2024 as a barometer of market sentiment.
“Judging by the crowd, there are no bears or bulls,” Holbert said.
Nodle co-founder and CEO Micah Benoliel was somewhat more optimistic about the recent regulatory changes, noting that the SEC’s heavy-handed approach to crypto oversight has driven many companies offshore, making it difficult for them to operate domestically.
If all goes well, Benoliel said, “the U.S. remains the largest crypto market in the world, so that alone should create a new bull market.”
Amanda Wick, founder and CEO of the Association of Women in Cryptocurrency and a former Department of Justice prosecutor, is similarly optimistic about this year, seeing signs on the conference floor that the industry is maturing.
“This year's consensus was like night and day compared to last year,” Wick said. “Maturity was evident in the conversations, speakers, sponsors, and intentional inclusion of organizations working to increase diversity in the industry,” she added, noting this year's outreach to diversity organizations like WebQ's LGBTQ+ allies. “The industry's best chance of sustaining a bull market is with increased maturity and integrity, and this year's consensus clearly reflects positive movement in that direction,” she concluded.
Indeed, we may not know exactly whether cryptocurrencies are on the brink of a new bull or bear market, but fortunately, cryptocurrencies will have learned to avoid what caused their last sell-off.
