Citing historical data, the popular crypto strategist said Bitcoin has officially left the post-halving “danger zone” and may fall below the bottom of the range, and is now heading towards re-accumulation.
Bitcoin prices have been trending downwards recently, currently hovering around $69,000, despite the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finally approving several Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs). With Bitcoin out of the red zone, will the preeminent cryptocurrency return to an upward trend soon, or could a more serious correction be in the cards?
Analyst predicts Bitcoin's sideways trading will continue for the next few weeks
On May 24, cryptocurrency trader and analyst Rekt Capital posted an update on X, noting that Bitcoin’s typical “danger zone,” where the asset corrects after the quadrennial halving, has now passed.
According to Rekt Capital, the post-halving danger zone has occurred in previous market cycles when assets corrected after block subsidy halvings. Once past the danger zone, Bitcoin historically tends to sideways within a narrow range and enters a re-accumulation phase. This suggests that further pullbacks could still occur during the sideways volatility period commonly seen after halvings.
“Since the end of the post-Bitcoin halving 'danger zone', Bitcoin has risen to $71,500. However, around $71,500 is the high resistance range of the macro reaccumulation range from which Bitcoin has been rejected,” Rekt Capital wrote. “Consolidation continues, with history suggesting a few more weeks between $60,000 and $70,000.”
Rekt Capital further noted that based on historical trends, Bitcoin is likely to remain within the sub-$70,000 range until September.
“Historically, Bitcoin has always been rejected from the high of the range during its first post-halving breakout attempt. Moreover, history suggests that this re-accumulation lasts much longer. Bitcoin tends to break out of these re-accumulation ranges only up to 160 days after the halving, meaning we won’t see Bitcoin break out of the re-accumulation range until September 2024.”
Bitcoin Price Overview
During this cycle, Bitcoin fell more than 20% from an all-time high of $73,737 in mid-March to around $56,780 on May 1, signaling a potential bottom for the post-halving danger zone period.
On May 21, Bitcoin price briefly rose above the psychologically important $70,000 level but quickly fell back to around $67,000. Currently, BTC has recovered and is trading back up to $69,176 at the time of writing, supporting analysis of a return to the re-accumulation zone.
Although the leading cryptocurrency appears to be stuck in sideways price fluctuations, industry experts remain very bullish. Veteran crypto market commentator Tom Lee, for example, said his base case for Bitcoin is $150,000 by the end of the year.
