Cryptocurrency trading firm QCP Capital suggested that if a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund were approved in the U.S., the price of Ethereum could rise by 60% in the coming weeks to around $6,000, using a spot Bitcoin ETF as a guide.
Bitcoin rose 66% in the two months after the Securities and Exchange Commission approved spotting a Bitcoin ETF on January 10, from about $44,500 to a high of $73,800, according to The Block's price page. did.
The SEC has final deadlines on Thursday and Friday to decide whether to approve or deny the Spot Ethereum ETF applications filed by VanEck and Ark Invest, respectively. Invesco, Fidelity, BlackRock, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton and Bitwise are also among Spot Ethereum ETF applicants who made last-minute changes to their filings this week.
“All eyes are on the deadline for the ETH ETF later today. With implied volatility exceeding 100% on Friday, the market is expecting fireworks,” the analysts said this morning on Telegram channel QCP Broadcast. “VanEck's ETF has been listed by DTCC. It is highly likely to be approved, and trading is expected to occur as early as next week.”
Implied volatility here refers to the market's prediction of Ethereum's potential price movement over a specified period of time, derived from the cryptocurrency's option prices.
QCP's views mirror those of analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein, who also take a position on cryptocurrencies, who said earlier this week that they expect similar price volatility for Ethereum given the continued influx of demand following the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.
“However, ETH’s float and supply look even more attractive than Bitcoin… limited by obsessive investors and utilities locking in supply with financial smart contracts,” Bernstein analysts added. Ta.
Ethereum trading indicators soar
Total open interest in Ethereum options and futures also skyrocketed this week, with Ethereum futures ETF trading volume reaching an all-time high of $48 million on Tuesday.
Grayscale Ethereum Trust’s (ETHE) discount to net asset value (NAV) also narrowed to its lowest in more than two years, at -6.7%, this week after Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyfert dramatically raised their odds of spot Ethereum ETF approval. It rose to 75% from 25% on Monday amid SEC 180 indications.
However, the new optimism could also lead to a significant price correction for Ethereum if the SEC denies the filing.
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