- After the recent SEC update, the odds of approval for the ETH ETF jumped from 25% to 75%.
- Although the market has rallied, 100% approval of the ETF is not guaranteed unless S-1 is also approved.
Astonishing 180-degree turn reported by US SEC Ethereum [ETH] With ETF approval, Bloomberg analysts suggest the probability of approval increases from 25% to 75%.
According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balciunas, the approval “political issues”, which may have led to the SEC's move.
“Update: @JSeyff and I have raised the probability of Spot Ether ETF approval from 25% to 75%. The SEC could make a 180-degree turn on this (increasingly political) issue this afternoon. Now everyone is freaking out because they heard rumors that they have sex (we thought everyone else would be rejected).”
The SEC reportedly asked exchanges to promptly update their 19b-4 filings. This signals approval intent for most market watchers.
SEC Update on Ethereum ETF Approval
For those who aren't familiar, ETFs can only be launched or sold to U.S. citizens if the SEC approves Forms 19b-4 and S-1.
Exchanges like the NYSE and Nasdaq file Form 19b-4 (also known as an exchange rule change) with the SEC when they list new products on their platforms.
An S-1 form, also known as a “registration statement,” is filed by a potential issuer, in this case an asset manager such as BlackRock or VanEck. These forms include the structure of the fund, its management, and the proposed operation of the fund. ETF products.
The development that raised the odds of ETF approval from 25% to 75% involved a change in exchange rules (19b-4s).
according to Balchunasthe SEC required updated 19b-4s from exchanges by mid-morning May 21st.
“We are hearing that the SEC will return the amended 19b-4 (based on the large volume of comments just received today) by 10 a.m. tomorrow and that it is likely to be approved as soon as Wednesday.”
Approval of Ethereum ETF and its impact
Its development is also reflected in the prediction market, Polymarketas the odds of approval have jumped from 10% to 59% at the time of writing.
The change in sentiment was also evident on the ETH price chart. The altcoin soared more than 19% to $3.7 million, erasing April's losses. Bullish sentiment has boosted the entire crypto sector, including: ethereum classic [ETC].
ETC rose 17% from $28 to $32.9, turning the market structure in a bullish direction. ETC half price event As the deadline (May 31st) approaches, ETC could rise significantly due to the ETH update.
However, leveraged ETH short traders were the most affected by this update, with $79 million worth of short positions liquidated in the past 12 hours, according to Coinglass data.
That being said, it's worth noting that the update only includes the 19b-4 and not the S-1. Nate Geraci at ETF Store predicted The SEC's latest information could lead to “technical” approval of the 19b-4, but the pace is slow for the S-1.
“It is technically possible for the SEC to approve 19b-4 and then slow-play S-1 (especially given the reported lack of engagement here).”
If 19b-4s is approved, final approval of the ETH ETF could take some time. But some market watchers say it's a matter of when, not if.However, staking functionality remains unresolved problem At this stage.
