- Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said the odds of the SEC approving an Ethereum ETF have improved significantly.
- The SEC's sudden change in attitude has everyone confused, Balciunas said.
- He increased his approval rating from 25% to 75%.
It is increasingly likely that the Securities and Exchange Commission will greenlight the application for an Ethereum Spot ETF.
Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, who had long been bearish on the product's odds, wrote in a post on X that the probability of approval has increased from 25% to 75%.
“Everyone is panicking right now (like the rest of us) because we heard some chatter this afternoon that the SEC might do a 180 on this (increasingly political issue),” Balciunas said. I thought everyone else would be rejected.”
“That's what we're hearing from multiple sources,” said James Seifert, research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence ETF. “If we are right, we should see a large number of applications submitted within the next few days.”
Ethereum has soared 8% since Balciunas’ tweet and was recently trading at $3,400.
“If the Spot ETH ETF were approved, it would be a real shock to everyone I know in Washington DC who is close to this process,” Jake Cherbinski, chief legal officer at Valiant Funds, posted. “This means that approval could signal a major change in U.S. crypto policy after the SAB 121 vote, perhaps even more significant than the ETF itself.”
Last Thursday, the Senate voted on a resolution to repeal the controversial SEC accounting guidance, SAB 121, which critics say prevents investment banks from offering cryptocurrency custody services at scale.
President Joe Biden has indicated he would veto the provision if approved. But leading Democratic lawmakers have joined their Republican colleagues in opposing the rule, raising speculation that the White House may back out.
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deadline
If the SEC wants to approve Ethereum ETF products, it will need to act quickly. The deadline for VanEck's Ethereum ETF applications is Thursday, and the SEC is unlikely to approve some applications before others to avoid playing the role of kingmaker.
ETF Store President Nate Geraci says that despite tight deadlines, the SEC approves one set of key filings, known as 19b-4s, ahead of deadline and then “slow-plays” a second set of filings. He said it was possible. A filing called an S-1.
The SEC must approve both applications before the ETF can go to market.
Balciunas previously said: DL News An Ethereum ETF is unlikely to be approved before the end of 2025, given that the SEC is reportedly not engaging with a prospective issuer.
If the ETF is rejected, the issuer will likely wait until after the U.S. presidential election to reapply. That's because a victory for Republican candidate Donald Trump would likely mean a change in SEC leadership. Current Chairman Gary Gensler.
Tom Carreras is a markets correspondent for DL News. Do you have any tips for Ethereum ETFs? Contact us at tcarreras@dlnews.com.
