The long-awaited verdict on the original Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) is fast approaching, and market enthusiasts are watching the SEC's decision with bated breath. VanEck's application will be decided on May 23rd, followed by Ark 21Shares on May 24th.
This decision isn't just about VanEck and Ark 21Shares. This is a pivotal moment that could determine the fate of several other promising stocks, including Hashdex, Grayscale, Invesco Galaxy, BlackRock and Fidelity, all awaiting the fate of regulators.
Everyone, it's time to compete!
On May 20, ETF Store President Nate Geraci emphasized that SEC approval is contingent on both 19b-4 (changes in exchange rules) and S-1 (registration statements). It is “technically possible” for the SEC to greenlight a 19b-4 and then suspend the S-1, but dialogue with issuers is limited.
Understanding 19b-4 and S-1
19b-4 was filed by national stock exchanges such as the NYSE and Nasdaq and provides a gateway for rule changes and the introduction of new products such as spot ETH ETFs. The S-1, on the other hand, provides a detailed breakdown of the company's operations and offerings.
Industry veteran “Gronkey”’s insights into X suggested the SEC may use delay tactics to dig deeper into market dynamics and the specific structure of these ETFs without outright dismissal. .
key player
Just five SEC commissioners will vote to approve or reject the VanEck ETF. Gary Gensler, who voted in favor of approving a spot Bitcoin ETF in January, is one of them.
The remaining four members are pro-cryptocurrency commissioners Hester Pierce and Mark Ueda, and anti-cryptocurrency commissioners Caroline Crenshaw and Jaime Lizarraga. This lineup suggests that Gensler's vote could once again be the deciding factor.
What happens if the ETH ETF is approved?
If the SEC gives the green light to VanEck's ETF on Wednesday, ETH prices are poised for a near-term rally. But conventional wisdom leans towards denial. Analysts maintain that even if the ETF faces a setback this week, final approval is almost certain.
Analyst “Mr. Crypto” noted that a bearish rejection scenario is already priced in, and that other traders and analysts hold a similar view. But sudden approval could catch the market by surprise.
ETH price analysis
Recent market trends paint a mixed picture. Ethereum hit a year-to-date low against Bitcoin (0.044 BTC) on May 16, but has since rebounded about 6%. Nevertheless, general sentiment remains bearish due to the looming ETF ruling.
Currently, ETH price is hovering just below $3,111, and the SEC agreement could catapult ETH price past the $3,500 resistance level and mark a significant rally.
Also check: Will Spot Ethereum ETF get the green light? Details on the approval process
Are you investing in Ethereum? How will the ETF's decisions impact your strategy?
