Traders who accurately determined the start of the 2021 bear market meltdown say the lows for Bitcoin (BTC) are likely already in, based on historical patterns.
Pseudonymous analyst Dave the Wave told his 190,000 followers on social media platform X that Bitcoin's monthly moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator has contracted slightly. This traditionally indicates that a bullish trend has lost momentum, at least temporarily.
MACD is a momentum indicator used by traders to find potential points of trend reversal.
But Dave the Wave To tell He does not believe this signal suggests that BTC prices will fall significantly, as the MACD has not risen anywhere near the same levels as in previous bull markets.
“Yes, BTC’s monthly histogram is showing contraction and momentum is slowing, but we do not believe this is decisive for the price to fall significantly given the following:
1]MACD did not reach line height
2]Mature market
I wouldn't be surprised at all if we saw something different pattern-wise over a longer period of time. ”
Looking at the trader's chart, he seems to be suggesting that BTC's monthly MACD has not yet approached the diagonal resistance level, indicating that the bull market is likely not over yet.
The trader said that on a weekly time frame, Bitcoin's current MACD structure is reminiscent of July 2016, which was also right after the halving and just before the big bull run.
“If I had to compare the current BTC weekly MACD with the previous one, I would write it here.
Note that in the highlighted MACD cross, the price low has already entered. ”
At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $61,448.
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