About 10 days ago, Bitcoin had its fourth halving. This has led some altcoins to outperform BTC in terms of price, with some predicting that another favorable moment for the crypto market could be coming soon.
Furthermore, in the past, altcoins often started outperforming Bitcoin after a halving. This is also because the expectation of the halving itself generally brings optimism about BTC, but once the halving occurs, the optimism caused by expectations clearly dissipates.
Bitcoin and Altcoins: Cryptocurrency Market Predictions
There are at least three indicators that can be used to examine and synthesize the comparative performance of Bitcoin prices and altcoin prices in the cryptocurrency market.
The first indicator, and perhaps the most important one, is related to dominance, which is the percentage of the total market capitalization of the crypto market that BTC's market capitalization accounts for.
Looking at certain TradingView charts, we see that since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin's dominance has increased from 51% to 54% in early January, just before the new Bitcoin Spot ETF was launched on US exchanges. Masu. After falling to 51% at the end of January, it began to rise again, reaching a yearly high of 57% on April 13, just seven days before the halving.
These may seem like small movements, but they are actually significant, as the crypto market often moves in unison following BTC price movements.
It has continued to decline since then, peaking last Sunday and returning to 54%.
However, Bitcoin's dominance has recovered slightly, returning to almost 55%.
Thus, after the all-time high before the halving, a phase began that lasted more than a month, during which the dominance remained at a high level similar to that of early January, but overall altcoins remained weak in terms of price. It performed slightly better than BTC.
Ethereum performance
Two other indicators are closely related to each other: the ratio of Ethereum market capitalization to Bitcoin market capitalization, and the price of ETH expressed in BTC.
Bitcoin's capitalization is currently 3.2 times that of Ethereum, but on April 13th it had reached 3.5 times. Until a few weeks ago, Bitcoin was significantly outperforming Ethereum, as it was around 3x at the beginning of this year, but over the past 15 days, ETH has outperformed BTC in terms of price.
However, the analysis of the price trend of ETH expressed in BTC is even clearer.
At the beginning of this year, 1 ETH was worth about 1/54,000 of BTC.
The price declined until January 9, as Bitcoin outperformed Ethereum ahead of the ETF's debut on the stock exchange. The lowest peak in January was 1/48,000, but on April 13th, ETH also fell to 1/46,000 of BTC.
What's most interesting is that on Sunday, that number had fallen to 1 in 52,000, but it's still much lower than the 1 in 60,000 in mid-January. This suggests that there has been a rally of his ETH against his BTC over the past two weeks, and that Ethereum may have the power to outperform Bitcoin in the short term at this time.
bitfinex analysis
Yesterday, the 102nd analysis of the crypto market by Bitfinex Alpha was published.
Even Bitfinex analysts note that ETH and altcoins have outperformed BTC since the halving, but they add that this trend is consistent with previous halvings.
Specifically, this is due to investors and speculators seeking higher profits elsewhere now that it is believed that Bitcoin prices may have exhausted the first phase of the bull market. Dew.
Additionally, ETH often predicts altcoin movements and has seen significant growth in recent weeks despite regulatory hurdles, suggesting a mini-altcoin season may be starting. A series of signals are beginning to emerge.
In fact, there are positive signs for Bitcoin as well, but ETH's recent strong performance compared to BTC suggests the market is receptive to altcoins, according to Bitfinex analysts. .
Bitfinex analysts commented on the analysis:
“Historically, after a Bitcoin halving, attention is often focused on altcoins, which tend to consolidate and gain market share. This halving does not change anything, as a decline in the rate is seen as a bullish development in the long term, with investors increasing their risk appetite and seeking higher potential returns from alternative cryptocurrencies. It seems.”
